“America is back,” said the President of all the Americans. “Anyone who tells you America is in decline or that our influence has waned, doesn’t know what they’re talking about.”
Well, dear reader, we’re here to tell you: America is in decline.
We can give it to you straight because we’re not running for public office. And if we were elected, we would immediately demand a recount.
Anyone who tells you America is not in decline is either running for office ... or not paying attention.
In 1969 more than one out of every three dollars of income in the entire globe was earning in the US. That’s what the IMF’s World Economic Outlook tells us.
By 2000, that number had fallen... but not by much. The US still took home 31% of global income. But in the last ten years, the US share has fallen hard – losing more than 7%. Now, only 23% of the world’s income is generated by the US.
Ten years ago, China’s economy measured about 1/8th the size of the US. Now, it is 41%. Another decade and it will the biggest in the world. It is already bigger by several measures. And even if its growth declines to 7% a year, it will still surpass the US in a dozen years.
Hey, don’t take it personally. The entire developed world is in decline – with America leading them all down.
By 2050, according to a new study from HSBC, today’s emerging economies – as a whole – will be larger than Europe, America and Japan put together.
As the developed economies stagnate, the ‘emerging’ economies grow. Nineteen of the world’s top economies in 2050 will be those we regard as 'emerging' today. China and India will hold the number one and number three spots, with the US sandwiched between them.
So far, we are just talking about numbers. Try to imagine a world in which today’s emerging markets have more economic power, and vastly more people, than today’s leaders. It is not just China and India who will be calling the shots, but Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Indonesia too.
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